A tropical system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico could bring additional drought relief to Virginia on Sunday.
The low-pressure area, which is expected to take the name Nestor if it organizes into a tropical storm, was centered about 475 miles south of Houston on Thursday evening. Until it takes on a more organized look, the low was called “Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen” by the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of eastern Louisiana, Alabama and western Florida, where to-be Nestor will come ashore with 50 mph winds on Saturday morning.
Up to 5 feet of storm surge inundation could affect areas between Panama City and Clearwater, Fla.
The system will quickly lose any tropical characteristics after making landfall, but it will spread a swath of welcome moisture northeastward through drought-stricken areas of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia over the weekend.
Another system riding the upper-level jet stream from west to east across the country will help to shape that swath of tropical moisture. There’s some uncertainty about how those ingredients will interact, which keeps a range of totals on the table for Richmond.
The remnant low-pressure center will make its closest approach to Virginia on Sunday — possibly tracking right over Tidewater, but more likely paralleling the North Carolina coast and heading out to sea.
The system will kick up breezy conditions across the region, but the chances of sustained tropical storm-force winds are very low for central Virginia, and only about 20% for Hampton Roads, according to the Thursday afternoon forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
Any rains are going to be beneficial to our area given the drought, though it remains to be seen whether Richmond gets another steady soaking like we did on Wednesday, or spotty showers and a few tenths of an inch.
Generally, rain chances will be greater in the southeastern corner of the state, and much lower to the north. Some areas south and southeast of Richmond could see 1-inch amounts, with the potential for 2 inches on the upper range. The system will exit quickly, which will keep excessive flooding totals very unlikely.
The first showers could enter the area as early as Saturday evening, with chances peaking on Sunday morning. The rain will clear out in the second half of Sunday.
After a brief lull from high pressure on Monday, another cold front could deliver widespread rain to the state on Tuesday.